Lots Of Upsets Brewing

Weekly NFL Picks

(4-7) Chicago Bears +10, (10-1) Detroit Lions -10

• Pick

  Lions 27, Bears 20

  The Lions are clearly the best team in the league right now and have the best coaching staff in the NFL. However, I’m not a fan of seeing a 10-point spread in a Thanksgiving Day game, so I would take the Bears +10 but bet on the Lions to win straight up. Jared Goff might be the most underrated player of this decade, and I expect him to have a big day. However, I don’t think the Bears are fully committed as a team, and I anticipate they will look very different next season. With all that said, I predict the Lions will win 27-20, with a late cover from Chicago. This will spark discussions about Caleb Williams's abilities, but I don’t believe he is quite ready to defeat a team of the Lions' quality.

(2-9) New York Giants +3.5, (4-7) Dallas Cowboys -3.5

• Pick

  Cowboys 20, Giants 13

  Both of these teams have been underperforming. Despite that, I believe the Cowboys will win again simply because they seem to be the only team trying to secure a victory right now. It looks like Drew Lock might be starting for the Giants, which could give Cowboys fans some cause for concern. However, I still think the Cowboys should win. That said, if Lock is starting, I would consider taking the Giants +3.5. If the Cowboys do win this game, they’ll be three games out of the playoffs, which isn’t entirely unrealistic given their schedule. This would likely raise a lot of questions about Dak Prescott during the offseason. His contract is increasingly looking like one of the worst in the league, second only to Deshaun Watson's situation at this point.

(5-6) Miami Dolphins +3.5, (8-3) Green Bay Packers -3.5

• Pick

  Dolphins 27, Packers 24

  The Dolphins are currently one of the hottest teams in the league, and I don't see that momentum stopping here. The Packers are also playing exceptionally well, but I believe this is a statement game for the Dolphins. Although playing at Lambeau Field does concern me, especially given the Dolphins' tendency to struggle in cold weather games, I think this is where they break that trend and secure a win. For those who are betting, I recommend looking at the alternate line and considering the Dolphins at -2.5. Typically, in these kinds of matchups, the home team tends to win if the game is close. Conversely, if the road team does win, they usually do so by a decent margin. Therefore, I also like the option of taking the Dolphins at -6.5. However, if you want to play it safe, stick with -2.5.

(2-9) Las Vegas Raiders +12, (10-1) Kansas City Chiefs -12

• Pick

  Chiefs 27, Raiders 17

  Aidan O'Connell appears to be starting in this game, so I like the Raiders to cover the spread. That said, I don’t expect it to be a very close game, and I do anticipate the Chiefs will win. They often keep games closer than they should be, which is why I would take the Raiders at +12. The Chiefs don't seem like a particularly strong team this year, yet they continue to win. They are definitely the last team you want to face in the playoffs, especially if you’re the Bills.

(8-3) Pittsburgh Steelers +3, (4-7) Cincinnati Bengals -3

• Pick

  Bengals 30, Steelers 24

  The Steelers might be the worst 8-3 team in NFL history. I have no idea how they currently have eight wins. I just don’t see how they keep winning, so I'm picking the Bengals to win. Betting-wise, I'm also considering an alternate line at -10.5 for the Bengals. There's no way the Bengals can continue to be this unlucky while the Steelers remain fortunate. I can't imagine a scenario where Joe Burrow doesn't throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns, and I don’t believe the Steelers can keep up with the Bengals in terms of scoring.

(5-7) Indianapolis Colts -2.5, (3-9) New England Patriots +2.5

• Pick

  Colts 20, Patriots 17

  Another game that may seem irrelevant on paper could actually turn out to be a sleeper, and I have a feeling it will come down to the last possession. This matchup could also have playoff implications for the Colts, who seem like a team that could unexpectedly go on a run in the postseason. While Anthony Richardson has struggled, he still possesses significant upside and can deliver an impressive performance every few games. This makes me a little concerned about facing them in the playoffs. On the other hand, the Patriots aren't as bad as their record suggests, but I still think they will fall a bit short. Drake Maye is a standout player and will be a franchise quarterback for years to come.

(7-4) Los Angeles Chargers -2.5, (6-5) Atlanta Falcons +2.5

• Pick

  Chargers 24, Patriots 20

  My love for Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh will never fade. The Falcons have been quite disappointing to me so far this season, but luckily they are in a fairly weak division. I believe the Chargers will win this game and cover the spread relatively easily, with a late touchdown making it somewhat close. I genuinely think the Chargers can beat any team in the league when they are at their best, so I am definitely picking them to win here.

(6-5) Seattle Seahawks -2, (3-8) New York Jets +2

• Pick

  Seahawks 24, Jets 14

  This line makes no sense at all. Saying that the Jets will probably win this game will make me look like a fool. This has to be one of the most disappointing seasons in NFL history. I know it's the Jets, and they are somewhat used to this, but even for them, this is bad. Personally, I don't think the Seahawks are very good, but I believe the Jets are one of the worst teams in the league. So, I don’t understand why the spread is so close, although I may be proven wrong.

(7-5) Houston Texans -4, (2-9) Jacksonville Jaguars +4

• Pick

  Texans 20, Jaguars 17

  The Jaguars are struggling, and that's all I really need to say. However, the Texans haven't been performing much better either. I believe the Texans will pull ahead in this game, but I think the Jaguars will manage to cover the spread. CJ Stroud really needs to step up, as it seems he has taken a step back lately. This may be due to the fact that they spent the entire offseason planning with Stefon Diggs in mind, but now they have to adjust to playing without him. Nevertheless, I believe they will figure it out before the playoffs arrive.

(6-5) Arizona Cardinals +3.5,(9-2) Minnesota Vikings -3.5

• Pick

  Cardinals 20, Vikings 24

  The Cardinals can either be the best or the worst team in the league on any given Sunday, so I won't be betting on another Cardinals game. However, I do expect this to be a very close match, and I lean towards the Vikings' narrow win. There seems to be some strange vibes surrounding the team right now, and I can see them potentially losing this game. It feels like they are gradually declining each week, which is to be expected with an older roster. That being said, I still believe the Vikings are the stronger team and should come out on top.

(3-8) Tennesse Titans +5.5, (7-5) Washington Commanders -5.5

• Pick

  Titans 24, Commanders 21

  These two teams seem to be on opposite trajectories following last week's performances. The Titans finally figured out how to utilize Will Levis, and I believe they will start winning more games. On the other hand, it feels like the Commanders are beginning to slip. Since the Cowboys have defeated you this year, I will be picking against you, so I'm taking the Titans on the money line here.

(5-6) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6, (3-8) Carolina Panthers +6

• Pick

  Bucs 24, Panthers 21

  This line feels very odd to me. I don't think the Buccaneers are a strong team, but I believe the Panthers are demonstrating that they are not a bad team right now. I have a feeling this game will come down to the last possession, and I have a bit more trust in the Buccaneers at this point. That said, I am becoming a big fan of Bryce Young and the Panthers in general. I don’t believe they are as far away from being competitive as many people think. It wouldn’t shock me at all if they win this game. I just believe the Buccaneers have more experience and are more focused on winning right now.

(5-6) Los Angeles Rams -2.5, (4-7) New Orleans Saints +2.5

• Pick

  Rams 21, Saints 17

  I believe both of these teams are slightly underrated. Honestly, this could be the best game to watch this week. Derek Carr makes the Saints, at worst, an average team; without him, they struggle significantly. I expect this game to come down to the last possession, and I favor the Rams to win in a close match. I wouldn’t recommend betting on this game because the winner will likely be determined by who wins the turnover battle, and predicting that is quite difficult. However, I think the Rams have a better chance of overcoming that challenge, so I will be picking the Rams to win.

(9-2) Philadelphia Eagles +3, (8-4) Baltimore Ravens +3

• Pick

  Eagles 27, Ravens 24

  The Eagles are a strong football team, and I expect this to be a great game. While I believe the Eagles are currently playing better football, these types of matchups often come down to the last possession. Saquon Barkley has been exceptional for this offense and has transformed the team into a much more competitive unit. Although I usually don't support signing older running backs, I felt that this situation was a perfect fit for him. For the first time in his career, he has a competent quarterback and a solid offensive line. I also have a lot of respect for the Ravens, but for some reason, they remind me of the Philip Rivers-era Chargers—it feels like they might never get over the hump.

(5-6) San Francisco 49ers +7, (9-2) Buffalo Bills -7

• Pick

  49ers 14, Bills 27

  I believe that Brock Purdy will not play in this game, but even if he does, I would still choose the Bills to win. It feels like the Bills are destined to win it all this year for some reason. I recognize that the 49ers have been quite disappointing this season, but if Brock does play, this could turn into a very close game. I don’t understand all the criticism directed at Shanahan right now, as his team is dealing with numerous injuries. I do think the Bills will win this game comfortably, but I would wait to place any bets until we have more information about Brock Purdy’s health.

(3-8) Cleveland Browns +5,5, (7-5) Denver Broncos -5.5

• Pick

  Browns 20, Broncos 27

  The Broncos should win this game comfortably. However, you never know what Jameis Winston might do. Bo Nix has been one of the best things to happen to the Broncos in a long time. He has completely transformed the team, thanks in part to the improved offensive line, but without him, the team's success wouldn’t be possible. The Broncos have the potential to cause problems for any opponent when they reach the playoffs this year.