Lots Of Upsets Brewing

Weekly NCAA Football Picks

(9-2) 17 Tulane -13.5, (9-2) Memphis +13.5

• Pick

  Tulane 31, Memphis 14

Tulane is, without a doubt, the best Group of Five team in the country by a significant margin. I believe they would defeat Boise State by at least 10 points, though their early schedule proved to be a challenge. Personally, I would pick Tulane over whoever wins the Big 12 right now, but I just don’t see how the committee could keep a Power Five team out of the playoff. I initially thought Tulane would struggle this year after losing Michael Pratt, who went to the NFL last season. They brought in Ty Thompson from Oregon, which I thought would resolve their quarterback issues, but he ultimately lost the job to Darian Mensah. Mensah has been outstanding this year, throwing for 2,200 yards and 18 touchdowns with only four interceptions. He has emerged as one of the best quarterbacks in the nation, and I fully expect him to continue performing at a high level this week.

(3-8) Oklahoma State +16.5, (8-3) 25 Colorado -16.5

• Pick

  OK State 14, Colorado 24

This spread doesn’t really make sense to me. I know Oklahoma State hasn’t been great this year, but I don’t think any game in the Big 12 should have such a large spread. I do expect Colorado to cover, but I'm unsure if that will be enough for them to reach the Big 12 Championship. Even if they do, I believe they're too far down the rankings to make the playoffs. They have still been one of the best stories in college football this year, but I think they will ultimately fall short of the playoffs.

(10-1) Boise State -18.5, (5-6) Oregon State +18.5

• Pick

  Boise State 21, Oregon State 17

Boise State is not an exceptionally strong team, and I can easily see a major upset happening in this game. However, I believe they are still capable enough to win this match, although it seems that their recent games have all been very close. This game should follow a similar trend, especially when considering Oregon State's talent level compared to Wyoming's. If Boise State manages to win out, they have a chance to secure a first-round bye, so I expect they'll perform adequately in this matchup.

(8-3) 14 Ole Miss -26, (2-9) Mississippi State +26

• Pick

  Ole Miss 34, Miss State 10

I understand this is a rivalry game, but I still believe Ole Miss is one of the best teams in the country. While they have a tendency to play down to their competition, I don’t anticipate that happening in this match-up. The talent gap between these two teams is significant. However, I really like what Mississippi State is building and could see them surprising some people next season.

(9-2) 7 Georgia -18.5, (7-4) Georgia Tech +18.5

• Pick

  Georgia 27, Georgia Tech 14

Part of me wants to pick Georgia Tech to win this game based on the season we’re currently having in college football, but I can’t quite bring myself to do it. I believe the game could be really close in the first half, but I expect Georgia to pull away in the second half since it seems like Georgia usually only plays one strong half of football. I still think Carson Beck will struggle, as he often does, and this game should remain competitive. Overall, I believe it will be an entertaining matchup to watch.

(6-5) Michigan +19.5, (10-1) 2 Ohio State -19.5

• Pick

  Michigan 7, Ohio State 24

This game of football is likely to be quite ugly, with Ohio State having a clear talent advantage. I don’t expect the game to be particularly close, although the score might seem tight due to a run-heavy, clock-consuming strategy. There’s a possibility that Ohio State comes out extremely motivated and wins by a margin of 30 points. However, I believe they will aim to overpower Michigan and win in the same manner that Michigan typically defeats them. A victory here would set up a rematch against Oregon, potentially leading to a trilogy between what appear to be the two best teams in the country.

(8-3) 15 South Carolina +3, (9-2) 12 Clemson -3

• Pick

  South Carolina 31, Clemson 21

This is the most confusing spread of the weekend for me. I understand that Clemson plays better at home than they do on the road, but talent-wise, this game is not close at all. South Carolina might be playing the best football in the country right now, and I fully expect them to win this game. If they do win, they should definitely be in the playoff discussion. I don’t care that they lost to Alabama and Ole Miss, who are currently ranked ahead of them. They should have beaten Alabama and would likely have beaten LSU if LaNorris Sellers had stayed healthy during that game. In reality, they should be 9-1 right now and in contention for the SEC Championship. They are the best three-loss team in the country, and I fully expect the committee to place them above Alabama and Ole Miss after this week.

(9-2) 8 Tennessee -10.5, (6-5) Vanderbilt +10.5

• Pick

  Tennessee 24, Vanderbilt 14

Tennessee is likely to win this game fairly comfortably, but Vanderbilt is dangerous and may keep it close for a while. Many are still waiting for Tennessee's offense to truly break out and for them to give Nico more freedom to run the show. It seems they don't fully trust him yet. Dylan Sampson has emerged as one of the best running backs in the country this year, and I expect the game to rely heavily on him. Overall, it should be a lower-scoring match that focuses on a ground-and-pound approach from both sides.

(9-2) 16 Arizona State -9, (4-7) Arizona +9

• Pick

  Arizona State 35, Arizona 31

This spread seems odd to me. While the records of both teams justify it, when you examine the talent levels, Arizona clearly has an advantage. Since this game is also being played at home for the underdogs, the spread doesn’t make much sense. That said, Arizona State did lose by 20 points to TCU last week, which was a surprising outcome. Still, I can't imagine this game won't be close. I believe Arizona State will win, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Arizona manages to pull off an upset.

(6-5) Arkansas +3, (8-3) 21 Missouri -3

• Pick

  Arkansas 31, Missouri 24

If Taylen Green stays at Arkansas next year, I believe they have the potential to accomplish something special. They have performed very well throughout the season, and honestly, I don’t expect this game to be close. Missouri has struggled this year, which is surprising given the talent they have on their roster. It just seems like something has been slightly off all year. The only way Missouri might have a chance in this game is if they can win the turnover margin by more than one. However, I don't see that happening, so I’m predicting a big win for Arkansas in this matchup.

(5-6) Auburn +11.5, (8-3) 13 Alabama -13.5

• Pick

  Auburn 24, Alabama 21

This is part one of my plan to get South Carolina into the playoffs. Alabama seems to lack an identity even after 12 games into the season, which is quite concerning. It appears they still don't know how to best utilize Miroe, who I could honestly see transferring after this season. While Alabama has better talent, it's not as significant as most people assume. On the other hand, Auburn has been playing really good football this year, but they keep hurting themselves with turnovers in crucial moments. I believe this game could be a pivotal building block for Hugh Freeze and the Auburn program. Next year, when they invest in a new quarterback, I think they could have a standout season.

(9-2) 9 SMU -13.5, (6-5) Cal +13.5

• Pick

  SMU 34, CAL 14

Cal is coming off a wild game against Stanford and now has to travel halfway across the country to face SMU. This is a challenging scheduling situation for them, and I have a feeling it could get out of hand early. I'm picking SMU to win big in this matchup, especially since they have a bit of a break before heading into the ACC championship game.

(10-1) 6 Miami -10.5, (8-3) Syracuse +10.5

• Pick

  Miami 31, Syracuse 34

  I haven't seen anyone discuss the scenario within the ACC if Clemson and Miami were to both lose this weekend. If that happens, would Miami still be in playoff contention? Could the ACC somehow end up with three teams in? Personally, I don't believe they would have more than one team qualified in that situation. Clemson would then face SMU in the championship game, and the winner would go to the playoffs. If this occurs, I think one of the three-loss SEC teams, like South Carolina, would be selected over a two-loss Miami. This game should be incredible, though, as it features two of the most prolific offenses in the country going against each other. Kyle McCord has actually had a decent season if we overlook the Pittsburgh game. If they had won that game, they would be in contention for the conference championship by winning this matchup. However, they now at least have a chance to play spoiler, which I believe they will do at home.

(10-1) 5 Notre Dame -7.5, (6-5) USC +7.5

• Pick

  Notre Dame 30, USC 20

USC isn’t as bad as many people believe this year, but I also think Notre Dame is better than most give them credit for. This matchup should feature a very high level of football, and I fully expect Notre Dame to come out on top. If they can navigate the playoff brackets and avoid the SEC runner-up in the first round, they should have a good chance of making a deep run. Riley Leonard has been playing solid football lately, and I anticipate that the team will continue to score points. On the other hand, USC will likely regret some of their early-season losses, as they seem to have lost momentum recently. Lincoln Riley will face a lot of scrutiny as he heads into next season, but I believe he is the right person for the job and should lead the team to a bounce-back year next season.

(8-3) 24 Kansas State +2.5, 18 Iowa State -2.5

• Pick

  Kansas State 21, Iowa State 24

  If Iowa State wins this game, they will qualify for the Big 12 Championship. There is still a slim chance for Kansas State to make it as well, but it's much less likely. Given that, I plan to pick the home team to win. The betting line suggests that these two teams are essentially even on paper, and I agree with that assessment, so I will be choosing Iowa State. If they win, they will advance to play Arizona State in the Big 12 Championship. In that scenario, I believe a Big 12 team would almost certainly make the playoffs.

(10-1) 3 Texas -5, (8-3) 20 Texas A&M

• Pick

  Texas 31, A&M 21

This is the perfect opportunity for Texas to start their season. They haven't had a game all year where they've played at their best, and matchup-wise, this might be the most favorable one they have all year. That said, this is A&M’s Super Bowl. I fully expect them to get off to a hot start, and if Texas can’t respond, they could find themselves in a tough spot. However, I have a feeling this will be the week their offense finally clicks. I haven't seen much from Marcel Reed that concerns me. Don't get me wrong; he isn’t a bad quarterback or anything, but he doesn’t stand out in any particular way, and I believe this elite Texas defense should be able to keep him in check. If A&M can keep it close in the fourth quarter, I will consider live betting on them because that stadium is intense, and the environment is one of the few in college football that can genuinely change the outcome of a game.

(11-0) 1 Oregon -18.5, (6-5) Washington +18.5

• Pick

  Oregon 42, Washington 14

This is a revenge game for Oregon. They are determined to go out there and deliver a strong performance against Washington. Although most of the Washington players from previous matchups are no longer on the team, the Oregon players are motivated to make a statement. While Washington is not a bad team, they simply don’t match up to Oregon's talent level, and they have nothing significant to play for. Therefore, I expect Oregon to win by a large margin.